Let's look this over before counting STP dead and bloated. First that Alice track isn't that great especially compared to Check My Brain and Your Decision. If YD was nominated, that would win, hands down, even though it's not quote unquote Hard Rock. The only thing that helps Alice is that they never won before. So they might be due. Ozzy's song is cool, but cheesy. At least the lyrics are. He's also a little outdated. As for SG, I love them and all, but that song blows. As for TCV, it's more of a sexy pick, so I see them winning if anything. Don't count STP out. BTL is actually really catching, it's a strong track overall and it was a number one for a decent amount of time. I can see any of them win.